Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

636 – 442.63

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

635 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 106.95Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

636 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

163.7 26%

Teleop

314.6 50%

Endgame

156.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7197, 3538, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.6 pts

~0.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460

Auto

83.1 19%

Teleop

231.2 53%

Endgame

122.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score636pts

Blue projected score442.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample14alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.4
Score range: 347–732
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 928 vs event baseline 531.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX789.2

163.7Auto83.1

314.6Teleop231.2

156.5Endgame122

216Consistency194

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	176	27
teleop	320	145
endgame	139	106
foul	0	15
total	635	293

Result

Final score

635 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 pts

Match videos

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