FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

347.3 – 288.33

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 280

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.2 ±8.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 96.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 153.33Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 97.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.2 ±9.3

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 86.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 91.97Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 109.61Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 494, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 494, 3603

Auto

56.7 16%

Teleop

183.0 53%

Endgame

104.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 2619, 5166, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2619, 5166, 1188

Auto

63.6 22%

Teleop

168.2 58%

Endgame

56.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score347.3pts

Blue projected score288.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59
Score range: 231–404
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 316.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.2Season APEX494.2

56.7Auto63.6

183Teleop168.2

104.8Endgame56.5

109Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	37
teleop	141	163
endgame	41	80
foul	0	0
total	227	280

Result

Final score

227 – 280

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 pts

Match videos

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