FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

452.28 – 417.6

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.5 ±8.1

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 77.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 194.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 180.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 798.2 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 91.86Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 167.84Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 157.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 503, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 503, 4237

Auto

83.3 19%

Teleop

273.1 61%

Endgame

90.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5216, 1701, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 1701, 3641

Auto

108.3 26%

Teleop

232.1 56%

Endgame

70.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score452.3pts

Blue projected score417.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.7
Score range: 361–509
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 826 vs event baseline 315.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.5Season APEX798.2

83.3Auto108.3

273.1Teleop232.1

90.8Endgame70.7

88Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	107
teleop	197	197
endgame	118	85
foul	5	20
total	417	409

Result

Final score

417 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Match videos

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