FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

572.1 – 368.37

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 144.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 106.27Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 198.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 266.97Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.2 ±8.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 102.62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 160.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 105.19Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 3538, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

572.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460

Auto

122.9 22%

Teleop

319.3 57%

Endgame

122.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3604, 494, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 494, 3603

Auto

60.2 17%

Teleop

191.6 53%

Endgame

113.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.78 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score572.1pts

Blue projected score368.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.7
Score range: 311–629
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 315.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

789.2Season APEX664.2

122.9Auto60.2

319.3Teleop191.6

122.6Endgame113

49Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	134	41
teleop	233	132
endgame	44	63
foul	5	0
total	416	236

Result

Final score

416 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 144.2 pts

Match videos

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