FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

297.09 – 321.47

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.2 ±9.3

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 88.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 96.04Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 112.54Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621 ±8.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 104.61Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 70.34Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 146.52Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2619, 5166, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2619, 5166, 1188

Auto

67.7 23%

Teleop

172.5 58%

Endgame

57.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3770, 3536, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3770, 3536, 9757

Auto

63.4 20%

Teleop

181.3 57%

Endgame

76.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score297.1pts

Blue projected score321.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.4
Score range: 240–378
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 316.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.2Season APEX621

67.7Auto63.4

172.5Teleop181.3

57.7Endgame76

99Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	39
teleop	142	98
endgame	50	84
foul	5	0
total	239	221

Result

Final score

239 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 79.3 pts

Match videos

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