FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.14 – 427.13

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

479 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 162 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 698.4 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 105.48Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 97.83Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 100.83Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.8

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 49.75Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 195.13Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 182.25Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 3707, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3175, 3707, 6615

Auto

53.2 18%

Teleop

149.9 49%

Endgame

99.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 1918, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11503, 1918, 3539

Auto

71.5 17%

Teleop

244.4 57%

Endgame

109.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304.1pts

Blue projected score427.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123
Score range: 247–484
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 757 vs event baseline 315.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

698.4Season APEX578.4

53.2Auto71.5

149.9Teleop244.4

99.9Endgame109.9

130Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	85
teleop	248	126
endgame	162	67
foul	0	0
total	479	278

Result

Final score

479 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 162 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.