FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.54 – 311.37

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

472 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.2 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 85.32Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 162.07Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 151.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621 ±8.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 103.08Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 65.6Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 142.69Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 1701, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 1701, 3641

Auto

106.4 27%

Teleop

226.8 58%

Endgame

59.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3770, 3536, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3770, 3536, 9757

Auto

61.8 20%

Teleop

178.4 57%

Endgame

70.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score398.5pts

Blue projected score311.4pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.2
Score range: 254–456
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 835 vs event baseline 314.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.2Season APEX621

106.4Auto61.8

226.8Teleop178.4

59.7Endgame70.2

81Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	72
teleop	238	188
endgame	111	103
foul	10	0
total	472	363

Result

Final score

472 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Match videos

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