FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.55 – 321.19

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

412 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.5 ±8.1

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 80.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 199.64Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 181.87Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.2 ±9.3

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 120.27Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 94.47Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 106.45Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 503, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 503, 4237

Auto

86.4 19%

Teleop

275.8 60%

Endgame

94.2 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1188, 2619, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1188, 2619, 5166

Auto

70.5 22%

Teleop

188.1 58%

Endgame

63.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.65 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score461.6pts

Blue projected score321.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.4
Score range: 264–519
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 314.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.5Season APEX494.2

86.4Auto70.5

275.8Teleop188.1

94.2Endgame63.6

87Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	58
teleop	256	107
endgame	80	37
foul	5	0
total	412	202

Result

Final score

412 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts

Match videos

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