FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

447.08 – 405.37

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 228.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.6 ±9.8

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 37.67Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 211.47Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 197.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.2 ±8.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 115.68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 172.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 116.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7768, 1918, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7768, 1918, 3539

Auto

70.1 16%

Teleop

252.8 57%

Endgame

123.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 494, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 494, 3603

Auto

62.8 16%

Teleop

215.2 53%

Endgame

126.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score447.1pts

Blue projected score405.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 348–504
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 315.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.6Season APEX664.2

70.1Auto62.8

252.8Teleop215.2

123.1Endgame126.7

101Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	47
teleop	118	80
endgame	56	59
foul	5	15
total	195	201

Result

Final score

195 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 228.2 pts

Match videos

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