FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.24 – 430.01

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

350 – 440

Prediction missed · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.5 ±8.1

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 71.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 187.65Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 174.02Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 798.2 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 96.23Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 171.82Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 161.96Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 503, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 503, 4237

Auto

89.0 21%

Teleop

244.4 57%

Endgame

95.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5216, 1701, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

430 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 1701, 3641

Auto

101.7 24%

Teleop

226.1 54%

Endgame

91.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score433.2pts

Blue projected score430pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.2
Score range: 373–490
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 319.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.5Season APEX798.2

89Auto101.7

244.4Teleop226.1

95.7Endgame91.2

93Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	148
teleop	222	205
endgame	51	72
foul	0	15
total	350	440

Result

Final score

350 – 440

Prediction missed · off by 46.6 pts

Match videos

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