FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

435.79 – 286.35

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.2 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 98.25Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 173.81Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 163.73Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.2 ±9.3

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 109.79Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 90.3Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 86.26Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 1701, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 1701, 3641

Auto

109.4 26%

Teleop

235.1 55%

Endgame

80.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1188, 5166, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1188, 5166, 2619

Auto

59.9 21%

Teleop

167.1 58%

Endgame

59.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score435.8pts

Blue projected score286.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.4
Score range: 229–493
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 319.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.2Season APEX494.2

109.4Auto59.9

235.1Teleop167.1

80.2Endgame59.5

79Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	58
teleop	161	100
endgame	169	69
foul	10	15
total	388	242

Result

Final score

388 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Match videos

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