FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

548.3 – 445.86

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

631 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 86.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 101.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 189.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 257.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635.5 ±8.1

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 75.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 192.07Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 178.61Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 3538, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

548.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460

Auto

125.0 23%

Teleop

306.1 57%

Endgame

110.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 5534, 503, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 503, 4237

Auto

85.6 19%

Teleop

260.4 59%

Endgame

95.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score548.3pts

Blue projected score445.9pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.4
Score range: 389–605
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 987 vs event baseline 317.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

789.2Season APEX635.5

125Auto85.6

306.1Teleop260.4

110.3Endgame95

59Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	159	108
teleop	304	144
endgame	163	104
foul	5	0
total	631	356

Result

Final score

631 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 86.3 pts

Match videos

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