FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

417.76 – 338.17

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

543 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.2 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 91.62Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 167.79Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 158.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 698.4 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 116.32Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 109.07Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 112.78Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 1701, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 1701, 3641

Auto

108.2 26%

Teleop

227.4 56%

Endgame

73.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3175, 3707, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3175, 3707, 6615

Auto

56.2 17%

Teleop

169.9 50%

Endgame

111.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score417.8pts

Blue projected score338.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.6
Score range: 281–475
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 922 vs event baseline 315.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.2Season APEX698.4

108.2Auto56.2

227.4Teleop169.9

73.4Endgame111.2

86Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	52
teleop	277	206
endgame	123	116
foul	25	5
total	543	379

Result

Final score

543 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Match videos

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