FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.59 – 119.01

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 166.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 770.4 ±8.7

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 61.62Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 178.57Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 68.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.9 ±8.7

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 56.19Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 50.25Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 12.57Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1701, 573, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1701, 573, 494

Auto

70.6 23%

Teleop

178.9 58%

Endgame

59.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3603, 4237, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3603, 4237, 4327

Auto

49.8 42%

Teleop

60.1 51%

Endgame

9.0 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.74 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score308.6pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.6
Score range: 59–369
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 761 vs event baseline 331.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

770.4Season APEX533.9

70.6Auto49.8

178.9Teleop60.1

59.2Endgame9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	65
teleop	211	204
endgame	84	95
foul	0	0
total	397	364

Result

Final score

397 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 166.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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