FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.95 – 266.52

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 687.7 ±8.7

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 205.69Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 66.27Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 105.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.2 ±9.3

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 95.44Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 1.2Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 169.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3539, 573, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

378 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3539, 573, 6615

Auto

57.5 15%

Teleop

218.2 57%

Endgame

108.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3707, 3632, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3707, 3632, 494

Auto

56.0 21%

Teleop

112.4 42%

Endgame

97.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score378pts

Blue projected score266.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.4
Score range: 210–435
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 573 vs event baseline 315.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

687.7Season APEX557.2

57.5Auto56

218.2Teleop112.4

108Endgame97

58Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	19
teleop	127	180
endgame	96	95
foul	0	0
total	279	294

Result

Final score

279 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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