FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.18 – 212.32

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537 ±9.3

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 44.41Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 62.87Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 81.9Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.7 ±9.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 47.31Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 104.69Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 60.32Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11503, 3536, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11503, 3536, 5216

Auto

56.6 30%

Teleop

119.7 64%

Endgame

9.4 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 3770, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2224, 3770, 9312

Auto

41.0 19%

Teleop

103.9 49%

Endgame

65.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.2pts

Blue projected score212.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.1
Score range: 132–269
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 316.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537Season APEX356.7

56.6Auto41

119.7Teleop103.9

9.4Endgame65.4

124Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	76
teleop	72	94
endgame	58	26
foul	0	0
total	180	196

Result

Final score

180 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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