FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

363.56 – 522.11

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 158.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590 ±9.3

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 61.64Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 89.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 212.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 716.8 ±8.1

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 153.54Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 210.23Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 158.34Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5533, 5534, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5533, 5534, 3538

Auto

78.4 21%

Teleop

198.0 54%

Endgame

89.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9757, 503, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

522.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9757, 503, 3641

Auto

85.5 17%

Teleop

292.2 57%

Endgame

137.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score363.6pts

Blue projected score522.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.5
Score range: 307–579
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 317.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590Season APEX716.8

78.4Auto85.5

198Teleop292.2

89.9Endgame137.9

107Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	92
teleop	118	212
endgame	22	52
foul	0	10
total	202	366

Result

Final score

202 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 158.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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