FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.71 – 497.2

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 718

Prediction correct · off by 129 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.5 ±9.8

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 58.07Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 110.76Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 109.88Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.8 ±9.3

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 247.78Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 87.61Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 161.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11386, 3603, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11386, 3603, 1188

Auto

42.2 15%

Teleop

167.1 61%

Endgame

63.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5460, 7197, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

497.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5460, 7197, 4237

Auto

118.6 24%

Teleop

268.7 55%

Endgame

105.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score278.7pts

Blue projected score497.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -218.5
Score range: 222–554
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1034 vs event baseline 314.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.5Season APEX718.8

42.2Auto118.6

167.1Teleop268.7

63.7Endgame105.1

101Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	149
teleop	162	434
endgame	94	105
foul	0	30
total	316	718

Result

Final score

316 – 718

Prediction correct · off by 129 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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