FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.43 – 340.14

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

313 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.7 ±9.3

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 56.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 119.4Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 108.41Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 697.4 ±8.7

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 156.86Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 65.83Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 117.45Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6753, 4327, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6753, 4327, 3175

Auto

38.2 14%

Teleop

144.9 52%

Endgame

97.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1701, 8873, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1701, 8873, 3604

Auto

74.5 22%

Teleop

176.7 53%

Endgame

84.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.4pts

Blue projected score340.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.7
Score range: 227–397
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 646 vs event baseline 314.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.7Season APEX697.4

38.2Auto74.5

144.9Teleop176.7

97.5Endgame84.5

118Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	39
teleop	145	167
endgame	80	127
foul	25	0
total	313	333

Result

Final score

313 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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