FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.48 – 121.19

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.6 ±9.3

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 95.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 106.73Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 60.5Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.8 ±10.4

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 32.11Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 49.82Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 39.26Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2619, 5166, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2619, 5166, 4422

Auto

62.6 24%

Teleop

135.6 52%

Endgame

63.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7768, 3688, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7768, 3688, 8179

Auto

30.8 25%

Teleop

39.8 32%

Endgame

52.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score262.5pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.3
Score range: 64–319
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 315.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

505.6Season APEX255.8

62.6Auto30.8

135.6Teleop39.8

63.3Endgame52.7

107Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	39
teleop	142	94
endgame	56	63
foul	5	0
total	253	196

Result

Final score

253 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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