FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.5 – 224.07

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.9 ±9.8

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 58.24Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 70.57Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 205.69Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.9 ±9.8

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 102.31Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 77.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 44.54Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 5152, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3536, 5152, 1918

Auto

54.9 16%

Teleop

206.4 61%

Endgame

74.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6615, 858, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6615, 858, 6085

Auto

37.3 17%

Teleop

139.7 62%

Endgame

46.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334.5pts

Blue projected score224.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.4
Score range: 167–392
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 315.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.9Season APEX412.9

54.9Auto37.3

206.4Teleop139.7

74.9Endgame46.9

126Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	60
teleop	251	163
endgame	59	54
foul	15	0
total	375	277

Result

Final score

375 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.