FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.13 – 258.82

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.6 ±9.3

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 101.23Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 156.96Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 40.94Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 85.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 109.88Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 63.45Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3770, 9757, 11503

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3770, 9757, 11503

Auto

50.7 17%

Teleop

158.0 53%

Endgame

88.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7197, 3603, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 3603, 573

Auto

25.8 10%

Teleop

151.6 59%

Endgame

78.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.1pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.3
Score range: 202–356
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 618 vs event baseline 315.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.6Season APEX529

50.7Auto25.8

158Teleop151.6

88.6Endgame78.5

119Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	40
teleop	182	136
endgame	79	113
foul	0	0
total	329	289

Result

Final score

329 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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