FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

271.95 – 637.72

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

420 – 623

Prediction correct · off by 81.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.3

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 151.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 76.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 44.66Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 858.5 ±8.7

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 250Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 214.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 173.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4237, 5534, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

272 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4237, 5534, 6753

Auto

47.6 18%

Teleop

172.6 64%

Endgame

51.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5460, 3539, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

637.7 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5460, 3539, 494

Auto

146.6 23%

Teleop

357.9 56%

Endgame

131.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 3.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272pts

Blue projected score637.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -365.8
Score range: 216–694
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1043 vs event baseline 312.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.8Season APEX858.5

47.6Auto146.6

172.6Teleop357.9

51.1Endgame131.7

77Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	144
teleop	232	329
endgame	111	150
foul	0	0
total	420	623

Result

Final score

420 – 623

Prediction correct · off by 81.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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