FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.51 – 139.47

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.8 ±9.3

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 63.74Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 68.14Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 214.63Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.5 ±10.4

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 105.61Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 28.33Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 5.53Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9312, 8873, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9312, 8873, 3538

Auto

54.4 16%

Teleop

163.2 48%

Endgame

123.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1188, 7768, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1188, 7768, 3632

Auto

29.3 21%

Teleop

55.4 40%

Endgame

53.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.5pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207
Score range: 83–403
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 313.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.8Season APEX252.5

54.4Auto29.3

163.2Teleop55.4

123.8Endgame53.8

143Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	35
teleop	217	104
endgame	57	54
foul	0	0
total	342	193

Result

Final score

342 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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