FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

271.33 – 498.35

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.1 ±9.3

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 76.04Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 154.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 40.99Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 662.6 ±8.1

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 122.96Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 160.16Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 215.23Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 3641, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 3641, 6085

Auto

79.8 29%

Teleop

154.0 57%

Endgame

37.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4327, 1701, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

498.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4327, 1701, 503

Auto

95.7 19%

Teleop

286.7 58%

Endgame

113.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.3pts

Blue projected score498.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -227
Score range: 215–554
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 802 vs event baseline 312.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.1Season APEX662.6

79.8Auto95.7

154Teleop286.7

37.6Endgame113

75Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	73
teleop	188	235
endgame	45	146
foul	20	20
total	328	474

Result

Final score

328 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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