FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.86 – 196.57

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 126.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.3 ±9.3

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX -Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX -Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 74.86Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.5 ±9.3

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX -Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX -Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 90.57Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 3539, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 3539, 9312

Auto

44.9 25%

Teleop

91.3 50%

Endgame

44.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5152, 5166, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5152, 5166, 3175

Auto

54.4 28%

Teleop

96.4 49%

Endgame

45.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180.9pts

Blue projected score196.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 124–254
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 318.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.3Season APEX507.5

13.1Auto22.6

38.3Teleop43.4

23.4Endgame24.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	79
teleop	166	168
endgame	119	54
foul	0	0
total	330	301

Result

Final score

330 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 126.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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