FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.23 – 221.25

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±10.4

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 55.69Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 66.52Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 47.02Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±9.8

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 61.87Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 116.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 43.08Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11386, 5152, 3688

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11386, 5152, 3688

Auto

42.6 26%

Teleop

78.1 47%

Endgame

44.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5533, 3604, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5533, 3604, 2224

Auto

59.2 27%

Teleop

88.7 40%

Endgame

72.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score169.2pts

Blue projected score221.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52
Score range: 113–277
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 313.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.8Season APEX411.5

42.6Auto59.2

78.1Teleop88.7

44.8Endgame72.9

102Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	31
teleop	94	162
endgame	68	76
foul	0	5
total	222	274

Result

Final score

222 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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