FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

273.98 – 319.07

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.9 ±9.3

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 105.24Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 92.42Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 76.32Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.6 ±10.4

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 64.61Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 44.02Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 210.44Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 3707, 858

/ 100 compat

Projected

274 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3175, 3707, 858

Auto

58.9 22%

Teleop

149.1 55%

Endgame

61.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4422, 8179, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4422, 8179, 1918

Auto

43.9 14%

Teleop

183.2 58%

Endgame

90.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score274pts

Blue projected score319.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.1
Score range: 218–375
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 313.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.9Season APEX465.6

58.9Auto43.9

149.1Teleop183.2

61.5Endgame90.6

118Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	37
teleop	167	150
endgame	136	104
foul	0	0
total	322	291

Result

Final score

322 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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