FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

238.48 – 392.12

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±9.3

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 60.35Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 65.37Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 112.76Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.6 ±9.3

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 45.09Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 250.82Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 96.21Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 9312, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3536, 9312, 5166

Auto

43.6 19%

Teleop

145.7 62%

Endgame

45.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6753, 5460, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6753, 5460, 2619

Auto

83.9 21%

Teleop

209.6 54%

Endgame

97.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score238.5pts

Blue projected score392.1pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.6
Score range: 182–448
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 616 vs event baseline 313.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.5Season APEX691.6

43.6Auto83.9

145.7Teleop209.6

45.3Endgame97.8

171Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	115
teleop	109	219
endgame	59	67
foul	0	0
total	215	401

Result

Final score

215 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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