FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.24 – 369.8

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

481 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 94.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 201.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 29.47Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 97.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.4 ±8.7

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 127.14Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 81.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 161.4Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3538, 11503, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3538, 11503, 3603

Auto

54.5 17%

Teleop

176.5 55%

Endgame

92.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4327, 5534, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4327, 5534, 3641

Auto

74.4 20%

Teleop

201.6 55%

Endgame

92.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score328.2pts

Blue projected score369.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 272–426
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 814 vs event baseline 311.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.1Season APEX566.4

54.5Auto74.4

176.5Teleop201.6

92.4Endgame92.7

151Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	75
teleop	275	187
endgame	131	71
foul	0	0
total	481	333

Result

Final score

481 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 94.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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