FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

310.44 – 319.52

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

563 – 376

Prediction missed · off by 154.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.3 ±9.3

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 130.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 43.34Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 136.35Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±8.8

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 211.14Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 41.15Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 67.23Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4237, 5152, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4237, 5152, 9757

Auto

60.5 20%

Teleop

176.9 57%

Endgame

71.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 503, 3688, 8873

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 503, 3688, 8873

Auto

61.5 20%

Teleop

171.0 54%

Endgame

81.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score310.4pts

Blue projected score319.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.1
Score range: 254–376
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 939 vs event baseline 309.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.3Season APEX489.7

60.5Auto61.5

176.9Teleop171

71.7Endgame81.7

92Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	57
teleop	343	153
endgame	145	166
foul	0	0
total	563	376

Result

Final score

563 – 376

Prediction missed · off by 154.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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