FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

405.86 – 318.08

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.9 ±10.4

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 214.06Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 109.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 82.35Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±9.3

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 171.3Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 51.67Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 95.11Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1918, 1188, 858

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1918, 1188, 858

Auto

62.9 16%

Teleop

259.5 64%

Endgame

81.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 494, 11386, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 494, 11386, 3770

Auto

70.1 23%

Teleop

156.1 50%

Endgame

83.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score405.9pts

Blue projected score318.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.8
Score range: 263–461
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 769 vs event baseline 308.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.9Season APEX536.9

62.9Auto70.1

259.5Teleop156.1

81.6Endgame83.8

82Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	48
teleop	284	226
endgame	66	88
foul	0	10
total	397	372

Result

Final score

397 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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