FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.41 – 256.76

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 73.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.4 ±9.8

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 99.72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 75.82Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 25.87Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.2 ±9.3

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 116.06Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 71.09Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 69.61Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6615, 7197, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6615, 7197, 7768

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

89.3 45%

Endgame

88.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3175, 573, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3175, 573, 4422

Auto

46.9 19%

Teleop

138.5 55%

Endgame

67.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score256.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.3
Score range: 145–313
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 309.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.4Season APEX561.2

21.1Auto46.9

89.3Teleop138.5

88.6Endgame67.6

134Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	18
teleop	154	117
endgame	80	73
foul	0	0
total	299	208

Result

Final score

299 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 73.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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