FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.34 – 448.11

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 105.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.9 ±9.8

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 46.92Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 118.34Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 37.08Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.2 ±8.7

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 118.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 95.15Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 234.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6085, 3604, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6085, 3604, 8179

Auto

52.6 26%

Teleop

82.9 41%

Endgame

69.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 2619, 5216, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2619, 5216, 3539

Auto

111.3 25%

Teleop

251.1 55%

Endgame

90.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score202.3pts

Blue projected score448.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -245.8
Score range: 146–504
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 309.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.9Season APEX693.2

52.6Auto111.3

82.9Teleop251.1

69.1Endgame90.7

120Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	61
teleop	147	148
endgame	64	63
foul	0	0
total	237	272

Result

Final score

237 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 105.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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