FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.65 – 307.62

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.3 ±9.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 44.36Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 159.07Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 9.22Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.3 ±9.3

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 123.31Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 79.51Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 104.8Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2224, 1701, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2224, 1701, 3632

Auto

61.9 29%

Teleop

109.2 52%

Endgame

39.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5166, 5533, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5166, 5533, 3707

Auto

70.7 23%

Teleop

160.5 52%

Endgame

75.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score212.7pts

Blue projected score307.6pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95
Score range: 157–364
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 311.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.3Season APEX522.3

61.9Auto70.7

109.2Teleop160.5

39.8Endgame75

87Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	44
teleop	52	98
endgame	77	58
foul	5	0
total	206	200

Result

Final score

206 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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