FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

551.34 – 438.36

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 157.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.8

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 229.14Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 273.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 48.48Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678.6 ±9.3

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 168.96Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 213.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1918, 5460, 11503

/ 100 compat

Projected

551.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1918, 5460, 11503

Auto

101.5 19%

Teleop

302.1 55%

Endgame

144.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3641, 3538, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3641, 3538, 6753

Auto

67.5 16%

Teleop

248.6 58%

Endgame

115.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score551.3pts

Blue projected score438.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113
Score range: 382–607
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 674 vs event baseline 311.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.8Season APEX678.6

101.5Auto67.5

302.1Teleop248.6

144Endgame115.2

88Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	51
teleop	214	154
endgame	48	109
foul	0	0
total	360	314

Result

Final score

360 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 157.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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