FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.24 – 305.52

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.1 ±9.8

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 83.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 13.17Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 99.02Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.4 ±9.3

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 88.41Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 145.53Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 71.58Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 858, 3632, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 858, 3632, 3770

Auto

36.0 18%

Teleop

104.0 53%

Endgame

55.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5216, 9757, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 9757, 11386

Auto

66.8 22%

Teleop

151.6 51%

Endgame

79.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score195.2pts

Blue projected score305.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.3
Score range: 137–364
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 320.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.1Season APEX546.4

36Auto66.8

104Teleop151.6

55.8Endgame79.3

172Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	59
teleop	116	146
endgame	77	35
foul	10	5
total	207	245

Result

Final score

207 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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