FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.3 – 241.07

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.5 ±9.8

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 68.82Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 63.08Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 41.4Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±9.3

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 58.82Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 87.48Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 94.77Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4422, 8873, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4422, 8873, 11386

Auto

26.3 16%

Teleop

76.7 47%

Endgame

60.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9312, 6615, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9312, 6615, 3603

Auto

21.2 9%

Teleop

123.2 51%

Endgame

95.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score173.3pts

Blue projected score241.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.8
Score range: 117–297
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 312.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.5Season APEX516.1

26.3Auto21.2

76.7Teleop123.2

60.1Endgame95.4

100Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	48
teleop	98	185
endgame	38	88
foul	15	0
total	207	321

Result

Final score

207 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 56.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.