FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.64 – 383.82

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 650

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.4 ±9.8

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 48.39Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 128.84Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 37.41Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.3 ±9.3

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 102.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 205.26Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6085, 4327, 5152

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6085, 4327, 5152

Auto

57.1 26%

Teleop

113.4 52%

Endgame

47.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1188, 4237, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1188, 4237, 3539

Auto

84.7 22%

Teleop

237.9 62%

Endgame

60.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score214.6pts

Blue projected score383.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.2
Score range: 159–440
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 882 vs event baseline 309.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.4Season APEX584.3

57.1Auto84.7

113.4Teleop237.9

47.6Endgame60.2

135Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	115
teleop	114	396
endgame	84	139
foul	0	0
total	232	650

Result

Final score

232 – 650

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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