FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.78 – 129.66

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 92.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.6 ±8.8

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 72.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 202.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 110.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±9.8

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 20.33Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 111.72Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -2.39Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 503, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 503, 3604

Auto

69.5 18%

Teleop

187.9 49%

Endgame

122.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 3688, 5166, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3688, 5166, 3632

Auto

49.6 39%

Teleop

44.9 35%

Endgame

32.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score385.8pts

Blue projected score129.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 256.1
Score range: 74–442
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 700 vs event baseline 309.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.6Season APEX305.4

69.5Auto49.6

187.9Teleop44.9

122.8Endgame32.2

124Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	45
teleop	259	121
endgame	120	85
foul	5	0
total	449	251

Result

Final score

449 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 92.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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