FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

283.08 – 286.7

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 118.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.9 ±9.3

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 86.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 133.72Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 62.83Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.7 ±9.3

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 65.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 75.14Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 145.73Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 2619, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 573, 2619, 2224

Auto

55.8 20%

Teleop

163.8 57%

Endgame

66.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5534, 858, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 858, 1701

Auto

70.9 25%

Teleop

179.4 63%

Endgame

35.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score283.1pts

Blue projected score286.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.6
Score range: 227–343
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 309.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.9Season APEX577.7

55.8Auto70.9

163.8Teleop179.4

66.5Endgame35.8

28Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	89
teleop	56	269
endgame	68	32
foul	0	0
total	149	390

Result

Final score

149 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 118.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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