FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.48 – 307.14

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 644.5 ±8.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 97.32Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 116.35Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 99.81Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.5 ±8.7

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 99.31Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 70.87Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 136.96Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3770, 3175, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3770, 3175, 5216

Auto

77.2 25%

Teleop

165.8 53%

Endgame

67.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3707, 3536, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3707, 3536, 9757

Auto

57.2 19%

Teleop

156.9 51%

Endgame

93.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.5pts

Blue projected score307.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 251–369
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 309.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

644.5Season APEX675.5

77.2Auto57.2

165.8Teleop156.9

67.8Endgame93.2

121Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	60
teleop	146	221
endgame	60	36
foul	0	5
total	302	322

Result

Final score

302 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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