FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.34 – 238.35

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.3 ±9.8

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 55.12Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 158.98Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 16.24Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.7 ±9.8

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 106.1Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 46.55Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 85.7Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6753, 494, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6753, 494, 7768

Auto

35.7 16%

Teleop

123.2 54%

Endgame

67.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4237, 8179, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4237, 8179, 5533

Auto

63.4 27%

Teleop

124.6 52%

Endgame

50.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230.3pts

Blue projected score238.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8
Score range: 174–294
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 311.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.3Season APEX435.7

35.7Auto63.4

123.2Teleop124.6

67.8Endgame50.3

106Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	34
teleop	161	93
endgame	86	36
foul	5	0
total	279	163

Result

Final score

279 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.