FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

265.99 – 460.3

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

353 – 527

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.8 ±8.7

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 114.74Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 48.98Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 102.27Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.2 ±9.8

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 203.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 225.77Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 30.6Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4327, 8873, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

266 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4327, 8873, 5166

Auto

50.2 19%

Teleop

149.1 56%

Endgame

67.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3539, 1918, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3539, 1918, 11386

Auto

81.8 18%

Teleop

233.9 51%

Endgame

138.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266pts

Blue projected score460.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.3
Score range: 210–516
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 880 vs event baseline 308.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.8Season APEX582.2

50.2Auto81.8

149.1Teleop233.9

67.8Endgame138.5

141Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	78
teleop	173	351
endgame	105	98
foul	20	0
total	353	527

Result

Final score

353 – 527

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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