FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

329.68 – 545.53

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

290 – 518

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±9.4

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 45.7Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 203.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 80.07Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 881.5 ±8.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 119.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 274.9Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 150.99Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5152, 503, 858

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5152, 503, 858

Auto

59.4 18%

Teleop

201.2 62%

Endgame

65.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3175, 5460, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

545.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3175, 5460, 1701

Auto

150.8 28%

Teleop

283.8 52%

Endgame

111.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score329.7pts

Blue projected score545.5pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -215.8
Score range: 274–602
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 808 vs event baseline 309.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.8Season APEX881.5

59.4Auto150.8

201.2Teleop283.8

65.8Endgame111

156Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	101
teleop	192	322
endgame	52	80
foul	0	15
total	290	518

Result

Final score

290 – 518

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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