FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.17 – 395

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 108.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.9 ±8.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 106.68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 105.54Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 87.95Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.7 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 66.31Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 92.9Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 235.79Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 3770, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 3770, 573

Auto

44.8 15%

Teleop

148.0 49%

Endgame

107.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 10%

Blue · 8179, 3536, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

395 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8179, 3536, 3538

Auto

65.6 17%

Teleop

223.9 57%

Endgame

100.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 10%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.2pts

Blue projected score395pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.8
Score range: 244–451
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 310.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.9Season APEX602.7

44.8Auto65.6

148Teleop223.9

107.8Endgame100.1

94Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	53
teleop	127	117
endgame	77	55
foul	0	0
total	254	225

Result

Final score

254 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 108.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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