FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

471.85 – 166.64

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

625 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 99.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 829.2 ±8.7

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 155.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 65.52Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 250.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.4 ±9.8

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 48.02Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 50.62Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 68Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 573, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3641, 573, 5460

Auto

107.6 23%

Teleop

257.5 55%

Endgame

101.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 5%

Blue · 8179, 2224, 8873

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8179, 2224, 8873

Auto

30.9 19%

Teleop

80.4 49%

Endgame

52.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 5%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.85 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score471.9pts

Blue projected score166.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 305.2
Score range: 109–530
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 746 vs event baseline 320.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

829.2Season APEX333.4

107.6Auto30.9

257.5Teleop80.4

101.9Endgame52.9

70Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	27
teleop	413	73
endgame	134	21
foul	0	0
total	625	121

Result

Final score

625 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 99.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.