FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

408.68 – 278.93

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

553 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 126.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.7 ±8.7

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 140.87Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 154.72Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 113.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.2 ±9.8

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 76.92Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 115.47Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 86.54Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 3641, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 494, 3641, 2619

Auto

90.5 22%

Teleop

246.2 61%

Endgame

69.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9312, 5216, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9312, 5216, 4422

Auto

48.8 18%

Teleop

162.9 59%

Endgame

66.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score408.7pts

Blue projected score278.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.8
Score range: 223–465
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 723 vs event baseline 309.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.7Season APEX462.2

90.5Auto48.8

246.2Teleop162.9

69.1Endgame66.4

79Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	54
teleop	263	73
endgame	159	38
foul	0	5
total	553	170

Result

Final score

553 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 126.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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