FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.45 – 261.74

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.2 ±9.8

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 115.93Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 85.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 75.41Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.8 ±9.3

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 107.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 14.81Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 138.98Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3707, 1188, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3707, 1188, 2224

Auto

57.6 21%

Teleop

140.3 51%

Endgame

75.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 7768, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3603, 7768, 9757

Auto

27.3 11%

Teleop

138.5 53%

Endgame

93.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276.5pts

Blue projected score261.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 206–332
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 311.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.2Season APEX480.8

57.6Auto27.3

140.3Teleop138.5

75.6Endgame93.7

81Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	19
teleop	93	123
endgame	18	96
foul	0	5
total	154	243

Result

Final score

154 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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