FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.06 – 158.35

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±9.8

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 114.1Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 219.19Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 19.77Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.2 ±10.4

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 22.6Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 50.69Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 85.06Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3175, 1918, 3688

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3175, 1918, 3688

Auto

58.5 17%

Teleop

187.5 54%

Endgame

103.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11386, 6085, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11386, 6085, 5533

Auto

66.6 43%

Teleop

43.5 28%

Endgame

43.2 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score353.1pts

Blue projected score158.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 194.7
Score range: 102–409
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 312.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.6Season APEX289.2

58.5Auto66.6

187.5Teleop43.5

103.7Endgame43.2

140Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	28
teleop	184	107
endgame	104	49
foul	0	0
total	407	184

Result

Final score

407 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.